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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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