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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.